By : Lieutenant General (Ret) Soedibyo*)
The official result of the Regional Election of Jakarta will be likely announced on end of February 2017, however the credible result has been unofficially released concluding that the first position is occupied by Ahok-Djarot (42,5%), the Second position is Anies-Sandiaga Uno (40%) and the third rank is Agus –Sylvia Murni (17,5%). Definitely the second round of the Regional Election of Jakarta should be held officially in Jakarta on the third week of April 2017 to elect the Governor and Vice Governor of Jakarta for the period of 2017-2022 based on those achievement result.
Accordingly based on the result of the first round of the Regional Election of Jakarta, it is definitely the second round of the Regional Election of Jakarta will be the political rivalry between the pair of Ahok-Djarot against Anies-Sandiaga Uno based on their record in the first round of The Regional Election of Jakarta on February 15, 2017 as presented above . This means assuming that their respective voters in first round do not change their struggle is to grasp 17,5 % of the former voters of Agus –Sylvia in the first round as the freedom voters that both Ahok-Djarot and Anies-Sandiaga should try to attract.
Likely in general the People of Jakarta are considering that they are going to involve in the great political war to decide who will be the Winner of the second round of the Regional Election which is consequently the winner is considered as the coming political figure who will become The Governor and the Vice Governor of Jakarta for the period of 2017-2022.
The basic idea of the People of Jakarta is theoretically correct though it is not totally true because the Political War in the ballot day of the second round of the Regional Election of Jakarta will be actually “the political fighting of two Governor candidates and their respective Vice Governors will be just to grasp the 17,5 % voters of around 20 million of persons the former voters of Agus-Silvy”.
However the second round of Regional Election of Jakarta is definitely considered as the great political war because a number of significant reasons that have been popularly circulated widely among the political community in their analysis on the prospect of the ballot .
The ballot that likely will be conducted on the third week of April 2017 will be the political fighting between Anies-Sandiaga Uno supported by the Gerindra Party, the Social Justice Party, PAN, and a number members of PPP party who are trying to topple Ahok-Djarot the present strong Governor and Vice Governor of Jakarta supported by PDI-P, NASDEM, Hanura, Golkar Party, PKB , a group of the PPP members and PKPI (The Indonesian Unity and Justice Party) under the leadership of Hendropriyono , those are the Polical Parties supporting President Jokowi Cabinet . PAN is the only political party supporting President Jokowi Cabinert, but it does not support Ahok. PAN strongly opposed Ahok and rumor said Ahok is the undeclared member of PDI-P will be the partner of President Jokowi in the Presidential Election of 2019.
This general political situation has been observed based on a number of political development following the political situation after the result of the ballot day of the first round was started to be presented by the various credible Political Researcher presently.
Politically, Jakarta is actually just only preparing the spectacular political fighting between the pair of Ahok-Jarot against Anies-Sandiaga with very low different result of around 2,5 % in the first round and the Citizens of Jakarta are expected to decide who will anyone of the two Governor candidates to be granted the “50% plus 1” in the second round. Now undeclared campaign has been started with the hoax slogan describing the success of Ahok – Djarot as the present Governor and the sweet offerings of Anies-Sandiaga as the challenge Candidfate.
Mathematically 82,5 % of the voters have had their choice namely Ahok-Djarot and Anies-Sandiaga and 17,5 % are now still in un certain position or the independent group of voters in the second round of Jakarta Regional Election will likely be held on the third week of April 2017.
This 17,5 % voters are politically the former voters of Agus- Silvy supported by the Democratic Party, the PKB, the PAN, likely a group of PPP members and millions of Agus-Silvy Volunteer of the Political Supporters who are claiming belong to the Stronghold of the Pancasila and 45 Constitution Supporting Powers and the freedom citizens of various identities.
Unfortunately in this period in approaching the second round of the Regional Election of Jakarta the political situation is apparently warm and potential to become hot because definitely the Jakarta citizens are considering who will win the second round of the election and definitely will become the Governor and Vice Governor of Jakarta.
Now people are discussing the campaign issue of Anies-Sandiaga wo promise to establish the procurement system of residential homes with zero percent of advance payment and Ahok-Djarot is considered as the capable and successful Governor. The pair of Anies-Sandiaga is also offering the nice development of Jakarta without Ancol reclamation project and a fearful Governo r leadership.
The other sources of warming political temperature of Jakarta are the political dynamic of Jakarta as the central political power of the Republic of Indonesia. The “Angket of Ahok Date” I the House of Representatives and the political impact of the personal conflict between Antasari and former President SBY are the most spectacular political issues because apparently this political issues are involving President Jokowi position.
Aside of to present the sensitive information about the sensitive political issues precently this article is also intended to remind the people that may be the unexpected irruption of un anticipated problems could happen and change the unwritten scenario of the political development in approaching the ballot day in the frame work of the second round of the Regional Election in Jakarta.
By at large this article is also intended to remind the People of Jakarta to be aware to whatever the disturbing case to happens around them and to be respectively expected to rapport it urgently to the Security Apparatus concern. As we noticed various unexpected and unpredicted incidences had surprisingly and fearly happened around us.
Observation and Consideration.
In line with the above situation likely there are a number of Political andf Security Influent Problems that should be watched as bellow :
A. The general political situation that just happened in the country and tend to have the relation or could be connected to the problem of the Jakarta Regional Election among others are : @ The decision of the Ministry of Home Affairs to re-activate officially as the Governor of Jakarta, Ahok who according to the various Legal Expert has to be dismissed from Office because he is committed in Legal Court that could be challenged with five years of jail. Politically the legal conflict caused by the decision of the Ministry of Homed Affairs have seriously happened in the country. The Ministry of Home Affairs, Tjahyo Kumolo is defending his decision to re-activate Ahok as the Governor of Jakarta is considered valid and to become the right and responsibility of the Ministry of Home Affairs, President has nothing to do with this problem. The policy of the Ministry of Home Affairs is definitely supported by those political parties and various groups of legal expert who are supporting Ahok as the Governor Candidate in the second round of the Regional Election of Jakarta mainly PDFI-P. Ahok is definitely believed a covered and undeclared member of PDFI-P while the Ministry of Home Affairs Tjahyo kumolo is a senior politician of PDI-P.
President Jokowi is also a PDDI-P Politician figure he act quietly as if wisely he is avoiding to be accused involving in the PDI-P effort to safe Ahok from his political danger. President Jokowi wisely instructed the Minister of Home Affairs to request the Official Legal Comment of the Chief of the Supreme Court on this matter. Unfortunately the Chief of the Supreme Court rejected to make legal comment. He just said it is up to the Minister of Home Affairs policy who is responsible on this matter . The response of Chief of the Suprerme Court is definitely beneficial to the Ministry of Home Affairs because various legal expertsd suggested Ahok should be dismissed from his position as the Governor and this is the right authority and the responsibility of the President. It is not the right authority and responsible of the Ministry of Home Affairs.
However apparently this problem is moving dynamically to the higher political Stage. Around 90 members of the House of Representatives among others is the Deputy Chief of The House of the Representatives Fahry Hasan demanded the decision of the Ministry of Home Affairs to be officially discussed in the House of Representatives and officially call President Jokowi to officially explain in front of the plenum meeting of the House of Representatives. Those of 90 members of the House of the Representatives are believing that the decision to re-activate or to dismiss the position as the Governor of Jakarta is the right authority and responsibility of President Jokowi , it is not the right authority and responsibility of the Minister of Home Affairs. This proposal is now in the final process whether or not agreed by the Plenum Meeting of the House of the Representatives.
Definitely this political dispute will be easily countered by PDI-P. Apparently the Political faction supporting President Jokowi Cabinet is the majority of the House of Representatives accordingly the proposal to call the President and asking him the back ground policy of the Government to re-activate Ahok as the Governor of Jakarta will be easily rejected.
However this problem to have apparently made the political temperature to have been increasing and the political trust of the House of Representatives to the Cabinet to have decreased. The development in the House of the Representatives is considered as sensitive situation because it is described as the indication there has been strong idea to express the political disapproval to President Jokowi and wishing him to resign.
The observer tend to analyze this situation was actually the impact of the Policy of PDI-P which was wishing Ahok to be protracted and defended as the Governor of Jakarta. Ahok is expected by PDI-P will win the ballot in the second round of Jakarta Regional Election and to become the Governor of Jakarta until 2022 that concurrently will support President Jokowi in the Presidential Election of 2019.
The second interesting political issue is apparently the dispute of the legal conflict between Antasari the former Chief of KPK and the former President SBY that finally also to commit President Jokowi in this legal conflict. This legal conflict has apparently provoked former President SBY to have indirectly accused President Jokowi to be involved in the campaign of the Jakarta Regional Election to discredit former President SBY as the father of Agus Harimurti who join the Regional Election of Jakarta wishing to become the Governor of Jakarta to topple Ahok from his position. The suspicious attitude of former President SBY is likely based on his hypothetical analyzes, starting with a question what is the background idea of Antasari to accuse former President SBY as the criminal conductor of his previous legal case. Apparently former President SBY was angrily reporting it to the Police described it as treason accusing the action of Antasari is a political conspiracy with the Presidential Palace to discredit him in the frame work of to destroy the candidacy of Agus Hariurti as the Governor of Jakarta against Ahok. People understand that former President SBY believed he is powerful and influent enough to bring politically his son as the Governor of Jakarta replacing Ahok.
However People also tend to consider the action of Antasari will be backless bringing him again back to jail. Now the conflict between Antasari and former President SBY is under the Police investigation. Former President SBY lost the game in the Regional Election of Jakarta so the Police should seriously conclude how did it happened.
The Political effort of Ahok-Djarot and Anies-Sandiaga to get voters of “ 50% plus 1” in the coming second round of the Regional Election of Jakarta as the key factor to win is the interesting political issue approaching the ballot day of th Jakarta Regional Election.
This situation is identified from among other the political activities of Ahok –Djarot and Anies-Sandiaga group as bellow :
A Senior PDI-P Politician Trimedya Pandjaitan demanded PAN as the political party supporting the Jokowi Cabinet to support Ahok in the Second Round of the Regional Election of Jakarta. However PAN rejected the demand of Pandjaitan saying that PDI should not mix the support of PAN to the Jokowi Cabinet and the problem of PDI to support Ahok in the second round of the Regional Election of Jakarta.
The idea of one PDI supporter to suggest Megawati to be willing to meet former President SBY to normalize their political relation. This idea is speculation to make the way of former President SBY as the Chairman of the Democratic Party to allow the members of Democratic Party to make their own choice in the second round of the
The Social Justice Party is one of the strong backbone of Anies-Sandiaga beside the Gerindra Party. Accordingly the Social Justice Party remind all of its members that the disbursement of pictures containing hoax to discredit the Social Justice Party among the voters in the Social Justice Party Area should be anticipated.
In the frame work of to attract Megawati, the Golkar Party had played strong effort in supporting Ahok as intended by the PDI-P. Golkar being the strong faction in the House of Representatives supports PDI-faction in the House of Representatives to reject the demand to call President Jokowi and asking him the background reason of President Jokowi to re-activate Ahok as the Governor of Jakarta. Golkar Party is trying to close to PDI-P in the frame work of its effort to get the various access to enter the Government again. Golkar is wishing to be popular among the society again as a part of its effort to strengthen Golkar to face the 2019 political battle.
All of those political movement are indicating the effort of the various Political Party to be close of Megawati who is considered as the powerful chairwoman of PDI-P as the dominant political party in the Cabinet and in the House of Representatives and definitely utilizing President Jokowi maximally as the political key in the Central Government and Ahok who is considered as influenced undeclared PDI-P cadre. Ahok is considered to be supported by various giant economic powers.
The Extra Ordinary Element of the political and security Situation that is likely neglected while it is really sensitive, serious and crucial problem, it is definitely the legal court of Ahok concerning the accusation of insulting the Islamic Religion.
It is likely necessary to note that the legal court of Ahok on the case of Insulting the Islamic Religion is still on the move and it is not known when the final court will be conducted by the Council of Judges. Until now it has been the 9th Session to be held but no indication when the final session will be conducted.
This sensitive, serious and crucial problem should be anticipated because whether we like it or not those serious, sensitive and crucial situation will happen. With no intention to influence the Council of Judges or just to make an political assumption Ahok likely would be punished significantly and his political right is dismissed. Accordingly Ahok will be impossible to join the Regional Election or to be appointed as the Governor because he will definitely loose his political right.
Accordingly the Observers tend to suggest all the Political Power concerns should anticipate this serious, sensitive and crucial situation because after the punishment is announced by the Council of Judges definitely Ahok would have no more political right and the serious, sensitive and crucial problem will likely be faced by the Country.
In general in term of the political activities of the group of Ahok-Djarot and the group of Anies-Sandiaga in their effort to get voters of 50% plus 1 in the second round of the Regional Election of Jakarta will likely move normally.
In term of choice the political attitude of 42 % of voters gained by Ahok-Djarot and the 40 % of voters gained by Anies-Sandiaga in the first round of the Regional Election of Jakarta will be likely no change.
However since the rest of 17,5 % of voters as the former supporters of Agus-Silvy are no more organized firmly their choice will be likely free and open for the political move of Ahok-Djarot group to influence them. This is definitely considererd as the vulnerable condition for Anies-Sandiaga accordingly Anies-Sandiaga woould work hardly to counter the political activities of Ahok-Djarot group. The security apparatus should also anticipate the impact of this rivalry.
However the anticipation of the crucial situation caused by the decision of the Council of Judges upon Ahok who is accused insulting Islamic Religion should likely be made, it is predicted the decision on Ahok’s case is going to become sensitive, serious and crucial problem in the Regional Election of Jakarta. It is predicted the election of the Governor and the Vice Governor of Jakarta for the period of 2017-2022 will be confusing and chaos.
After the decision of Legal Court to be made by The Council of Judges the status of Ahok will be likely crucial, because it is strong prediction Ahok will get the significant punishment included the dismissal of his political right. The crucial problem will happen if the decision of the Legal Court is done before the ballot day. With no political right definitely Ahok could not join the Regional Election or appointed as he Governor.
This is to end the temporarily Observation on the Situation approaching The Second Round of the Regional Election of Jakarta probably on the third week of April 2017 as hypothetic prediction expected to be usefull for further watching of the situation.
*) Written by former BAKIN’s chief and the Political and Security Observer. Lives in Jakarta.