The Second Round of the Regional Election of Jakarta

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By : Lieutenant General (Ret) Soedibyo*)

The official result of the Regional Election of Jakarta will be likely announced on end of  February  2017, however  the credible result has been unofficially released concluding  that the first position  is  occupied by Ahok-Djarot (42,5%), the Second position is Anies-Sandiaga Uno (40%) and the third rank is Agus –Sylvia Murni (17,5%). Definitely the second round of the Regional Election of Jakarta should be held officially in Jakarta on the third week of April 2017 to elect the Governor  and Vice Governor of Jakarta  for the period of 2017-2022 based on those achievement result.

Accordingly based on the result of the first round of the Regional Election of Jakarta, it is definitely the  second round of the Regional Election of Jakarta will be the political rivalry  between  the pair of Ahok-Djarot  against Anies-Sandiaga Uno based on  their record in the first round of The Regional Election of Jakarta on February 15, 2017 as presented above . This means assuming that their respective voters  in first round do not  change their struggle is to grasp 17,5 % of the former voters of Agus –Sylvia in the first round  as the freedom voters that both Ahok-Djarot and Anies-Sandiaga should try to  attract.

Likely in general the People of Jakarta are considering that they are going to involve in the great political war to  decide who will be the Winner  of the second round of the Regional Election which is consequently  the winner  is considered  as the coming political figure who will become The Governor and the Vice Governor of Jakarta for the period of  2017-2022.

The  basic idea of the People of Jakarta is theoretically  correct though it is not totally true  because the Political War  in the ballot day of the second round of the Regional Election of Jakarta will be actually   “the political fighting  of two Governor candidates and their respective Vice Governors will be just to grasp  the   17,5 % voters  of around 20 million of  persons the former voters of Agus-Silvy”.

However the second round of Regional Election of Jakarta is  definitely considered as the great political war because a number of significant reasons that have been popularly circulated widely among the political community in their  analysis  on  the prospect of the ballot . 

The ballot that likely will be conducted on the third week of April 2017 will be the political fighting  between Anies-Sandiaga Uno supported by the Gerindra Party, the Social Justice Party,  PAN,  and  a number members of PPP party  who are trying to topple Ahok-Djarot the present strong Governor and Vice Governor of Jakarta supported by PDI-P, NASDEM, Hanura, Golkar Party, PKB ,  a group of the  PPP members and  PKPI  (The Indonesian Unity and Justice Party) under the leadership of Hendropriyono , those are  the Polical Parties  supporting President Jokowi Cabinet . PAN is the only political party supporting President Jokowi Cabinert, but it does not support Ahok.  PAN strongly  opposed  Ahok  and  rumor said  Ahok  is the undeclared  member of PDI-P will be the partner of President  Jokowi  in the Presidential Election of 2019.

This general political situation has been observed  based on a number of political development  following the political situation after the  result of the ballot day of the first round was started to be presented by the  various credible Political Researcher presently.

Politically, Jakarta is actually just only preparing the spectacular  political  fighting  between the pair of Ahok-Jarot against  Anies-Sandiaga with very low different result of around 2,5 % in the first round and the Citizens of Jakarta are expected to decide who will anyone of the two Governor  candidates to be granted  the “50% plus 1”   in the  second round.  Now undeclared campaign has been started with  the  hoax  slogan describing the success  of Ahok – Djarot as the present Governor and   the sweet offerings of Anies-Sandiaga  as the challenge  Candidfate.

Mathematically  82,5 % of the voters  have had their choice namely Ahok-Djarot  and Anies-Sandiaga and 17,5 % are now still  in un certain position or the  independent  group of voters in the second round of Jakarta Regional Election will likely be  held on  the third week of  April 2017.

This 17,5 % voters are politically the former voters of Agus- Silvy supported by the Democratic Party, the PKB, the PAN,  likely a group of PPP members and millions of  Agus-Silvy Volunteer of the Political Supporters    who are claiming    belong   to  the Stronghold of  the Pancasila and 45 Constitution Supporting Powers and the freedom citizens of various identities.

Unfortunately  in this period in approaching  the second round of the Regional Election of Jakarta the political situation is apparently warm and potential to become hot because definitely the Jakarta citizens are  considering  who will win the second round of the election and definitely will become the Governor and Vice Governor of Jakarta.

Now people are discussing the campaign issue of Anies-Sandiaga wo promise  to  establish the procurement system of residential homes with  zero percent of advance payment and  Ahok-Djarot  is considered as the capable and successful Governor. The pair of Anies-Sandiaga  is also offering   the nice development of Jakarta  without  Ancol reclamation project and a fearful   Governo r leadership.

The  other sources of  warming political temperature  of Jakarta are the  political dynamic  of Jakarta as the central political power of the Republic of Indonesia. The “Angket of Ahok Date” I the House of Representatives  and the political impact of the personal conflict between Antasari and former President SBY are the most  spectacular political issues because apparently this political issues  are involving  President  Jokowi position.

Aside of to present the sensitive information about the sensitive  political  issues precently  this  article is also intended to remind the people that may be the unexpected irruption of  un anticipated  problems could  happen  and  change the unwritten scenario of the political development in approaching  the ballot day  in the frame work of the second round of the Regional Election in Jakarta.

By at large this article is also intended  to remind the People of Jakarta to be aware to whatever the disturbing  case to   happens around  them and to be  respectively  expected to rapport it  urgently to the Security Apparatus concern.  As we noticed  various unexpected and unpredicted incidences  had surprisingly and fearly happened around us.

Observation and Consideration.

In line with  the above situation likely there are a number of Political andf Security  Influent Problems that should  be  watched  as bellow :

A.  The general political situation that just happened in the country and tend to have the relation or could be connected to the problem of the Jakarta Regional Election among others are : @ The decision of the Ministry of Home Affairs to re-activate officially  as the Governor of Jakarta,  Ahok  who according to the various Legal Expert has to be dismissed from Office because he is committed in Legal Court that could  be challenged with five years of  jail. Politically the legal  conflict caused by the decision of the Ministry of Homed Affairs have seriously happened in the country. The Ministry of Home Affairs, Tjahyo Kumolo is defending his decision to re-activate Ahok as the Governor of Jakarta is considered valid and to become  the right and responsibility of the Ministry of Home Affairs, President has nothing to do with this problem. The policy of the Ministry of Home Affairs is definitely supported by those political parties and various groups  of legal expert   who  are  supporting Ahok as the Governor Candidate in the second round of the Regional Election of Jakarta mainly  PDFI-P.  Ahok is definitely believed  a covered   and  undeclared member of PDFI-P  while the Ministry of Home Affairs Tjahyo kumolo  is a senior politician of PDI-P.

President  Jokowi is also a PDDI-P  Politician figure  he act quietly as if wisely  he is avoiding to be accused  involving in the PDI-P effort to safe Ahok  from  his political danger.  President   Jokowi wisely   instructed  the Minister of Home  Affairs to request  the Official  Legal Comment of the  Chief  of  the Supreme Court on this matter. Unfortunately the  Chief of the Supreme Court rejected to make legal comment. He just said it is up to the Minister of Home Affairs policy  who is responsible on this matter . The response of Chief  of the  Suprerme Court  is definitely  beneficial to the Ministry of Home Affairs because various  legal expertsd suggested Ahok should be dismissed  from his position as the Governor and this is the right authority   and   the responsibility of the President. It is not the right authority  and responsible of the Ministry of Home Affairs.

However apparently this problem is moving dynamically   to the higher political Stage. Around  90 members of the House of Representatives among others is the Deputy Chief of The House of the Representatives Fahry Hasan demanded the decision of the Ministry of Home Affairs to be officially discussed in the House of Representatives and officially  call President  Jokowi  to officially  explain in front of the plenum meeting of the House of Representatives.  Those of 90 members of the House of the Representatives  are  believing  that  the decision to re-activate or to dismiss  the position as the Governor of Jakarta  is the right authority and  responsibility  of President  Jokowi , it is not the right authority and responsibility  of the Minister of Home Affairs. This proposal is now in the final process whether or not agreed by the Plenum Meeting of the House of the Representatives.

Definitely this political dispute will be easily countered by PDI-P.  Apparently  the Political faction supporting  President  Jokowi Cabinet is the majority of the House of Representatives  accordingly the proposal to call the President and asking him the back ground policy of the Government to re-activate Ahok as the Governor of Jakarta will be easily rejected.

However this problem to have apparently made the political temperature  to have been increasing and the political trust  of the House of Representatives to the Cabinet to have decreased. The development in the House of the Representatives  is  considered as sensitive situation because it is described as the indication there has been   strong idea to express the political disapproval to President Jokowi and wishing him to resign.

The observer tend to analyze this situation was actually the impact of the Policy of PDI-P which was wishing Ahok to be protracted and defended  as the Governor of Jakarta.  Ahok  is expected  by PDI-P will win the ballot in the second round  of Jakarta Regional Election and to become the Governor of Jakarta until 2022  that concurrently  will support  President Jokowi in the Presidential  Election of 2019.

The  second  interesting political  issue is apparently  the dispute  of  the legal conflict between  Antasari the former Chief of KPK and the former President SBY that finally also to commit President  Jokowi in this legal conflict. This  legal conflict has apparently  provoked  former President SBY to have indirectly accused  President Jokowi to be involved  in the campaign of the Jakarta Regional Election to discredit  former President SBY as the father of Agus Harimurti  who  join the Regional Election of Jakarta wishing to become the Governor of Jakarta to topple Ahok from his position. The  suspicious  attitude  of former President   SBY  is likely based  on his hypothetical analyzes,  starting with a question   what is the background  idea of Antasari  to accuse  former President SBY as the criminal conductor of his previous legal case.   Apparently former President SBY was  angrily reporting it to the Police  described  it  as treason accusing the action of Antasari   is a political conspiracy with the Presidential Palace to discredit him in the frame work  of to destroy the candidacy of Agus Hariurti  as the Governor of Jakarta against  Ahok.  People understand that former President SBY  believed he is  powerful and influent   enough to bring politically his son as the Governor of Jakarta replacing Ahok.

However People also  tend to consider the action of Antasari will be backless bringing him again back to jail. Now the conflict between Antasari and former President SBY  is under the  Police investigation. Former President SBY lost the game in the Regional Election of Jakarta  so  the Police should seriously conclude how did it happened.

The  Political effort  of Ahok-Djarot and Anies-Sandiaga to get  voters  of “ 50% plus 1” in the coming second round of the Regional Election of Jakarta  as the key factor to win is the interesting political issue approaching  the ballot day of th Jakarta Regional Election.

This situation is identified from among other the political   activities of Ahok –Djarot and Anies-Sandiaga group as bellow :

A Senior PDI-P  Politician Trimedya Pandjaitan demanded PAN as the political party supporting the Jokowi Cabinet to support Ahok in the Second Round of the  Regional Election of Jakarta. However PAN rejected the demand of Pandjaitan saying that PDI should not mix the support of PAN to the Jokowi Cabinet and the  problem of PDI to support Ahok in the second round of the Regional Election of Jakarta.

The idea of one PDI supporter to suggest Megawati to be willing to meet former President SBY to normalize their political relation. This idea is speculation to make the way of   former President SBY as the Chairman of the Democratic Party to allow the members of Democratic Party to make their own choice in the second round of  the

The Social Justice Party is one of the strong  backbone of Anies-Sandiaga beside the Gerindra Party. Accordingly  the Social Justice Party remind   all of its members  that the disbursement of pictures containing hoax to discredit the Social Justice Party among the voters in the Social Justice Party  Area  should be  anticipated.

In the frame work of to attract Megawati, the Golkar Party had played strong effort in supporting Ahok as intended by the PDI-P. Golkar  being the strong faction in the House of Representatives supports PDI-faction in the House of Representatives to reject the demand to call President Jokowi and asking him the background  reason of President Jokowi to re-activate Ahok as the Governor of Jakarta. Golkar Party is trying to close to PDI-P in the frame work of its effort to get the various access to enter the Government again. Golkar is wishing to be popular among the society again as a part of its effort to strengthen Golkar  to face the 2019 political battle.

All of those political movement are indicating the effort of the various Political Party to be close of Megawati who is considered as the powerful chairwoman of PDI-P  as the dominant political party in the Cabinet and in the House of Representatives and definitely  utilizing  President Jokowi maximally   as the political key in the Central Government and  Ahok who   is considered as influenced undeclared PDI-P cadre.  Ahok is considered to be supported by various giant economic powers.

The Extra Ordinary Element of the political and security  Situation  that  is likely  neglected while it is really  sensitive, serious and crucial  problem,  it  is definitely  the legal court of Ahok  concerning the accusation of insulting the Islamic Religion.

It is likely necessary to note that the legal court of Ahok on the case of Insulting the Islamic Religion  is still on the move and it is not known when the final court will be  conducted  by the Council of Judges. Until now it has been the 9th Session  to be held  but  no indication  when  the final session will be  conducted. 

This sensitive, serious and  crucial  problem  should be anticipated  because  whether we like it or not those serious, sensitive and  crucial situation will  happen.  With no intention to influence the  Council of Judges  or just to make an political assumption  Ahok  likely would  be  punished significantly and his political right is   dismissed.  Accordingly Ahok  will be  impossible to join the Regional Election or to be appointed as the Governor because he will  definitely loose his political right.

Accordingly  the Observers  tend to suggest   all the Political Power concerns  should  anticipate  this serious,  sensitive and  crucial situation   because after the punishment is  announced  by the Council of Judges definitely  Ahok  would  have no more    political right and  the serious, sensitive and crucial problem will likely be faced  by the Country.

Conclusion.

In general in term of the political activities of the group of Ahok-Djarot and the group of Anies-Sandiaga in their effort to get voters of 50% plus 1 in the second round of the Regional Election of Jakarta will likely move  normally.

In term of choice the political attitude of  42 % of voters gained by Ahok-Djarot and the 40 % of voters gained by Anies-Sandiaga in the first round of the Regional Election of Jakarta will be likely no change.

However since the rest of 17,5 % of voters as the former supporters of Agus-Silvy are no more organized firmly their choice will be likely free  and open for the political move of Ahok-Djarot group to influence them. This is definitely considererd as the vulnerable condition for Anies-Sandiaga accordingly Anies-Sandiaga  woould work hardly to counter the political activities of Ahok-Djarot group. The security apparatus should also anticipate the impact  of this rivalry.

However the anticipation of the crucial situation  caused by the decision of the Council of Judges  upon Ahok who is accused insulting Islamic Religion should likely be made, it is predicted the decision on Ahok’s case is going to become  sensitive,  serious and  crucial problem in the Regional Election of Jakarta. It is predicted  the election  of  the Governor and the Vice Governor of Jakarta for  the period of 2017-2022 will be confusing and  chaos.

After the decision of Legal Court to be made by The Council of Judges  the status of Ahok will be likely crucial, because it is strong prediction Ahok will get the significant punishment   included  the dismissal of his political right.  The crucial problem will happen if the decision of the Legal Court is done before the ballot day. With no political right definitely Ahok could not join the Regional Election or appointed as he Governor.

This is to  end the temporarily Observation  on  the Situation approaching The Second Round of the  Regional Election of Jakarta probably on the third week of April 2017 as hypothetic prediction expected to be usefull for further  watching of the situation.

*)  Written by former BAKIN’s chief and the Political and Security Observer. Lives in Jakarta.

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